Seasonal tendencies can be based on weather events (temperature, precipitation, planting cycle), spending surges (holiday and back-to-school shopping, end of government fiscal years, tax refunds), new-product announcements at industry conferences, or financial events (quarterly earnings reports, dividend hikes, and regulatory approvals.).For example, consumer-related stocks (e.g., food, drugs, beer, leisure, utilities, media, and retail) outperform the overall market between May 1st and October 31st and manufacturing and production stocks (e.g., consumer durables, chemicals, construction, mining, steel) outperform between November 1st and April 30th.Some stocks tend to go up consistently at certain times in the year. “Seasonality” refers to particular time frames during the calendar year when a company’s stock price is influenced by recurring forces that produce a consistent price direction – either bullish or bearish. Out-of-the-money call options General Strategy.But the S&P 500 remains comfortably above its uptrending 10-month moving average, so the Ivy Portfolio market-timing system continues to flash a “fully invested” signal.The Investor Intelligence bull/bear ratio has been above 3 for most of the past five months, which is longer than any time since the 1980s.University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun: insider selling is “as pessimistic as I’ve ever seen over the last 25 years.” More pessimistic than in 2007 (before 37% bear market in 2008) and more pessimistic than in 2011 (before 20% market correction).
Nasdaq/NSYE relative strength dropped decisively below its 10-week moving averagefor the first time since late September 2012.
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High-flying momentum stocks in the Internet (e.g., GOOG, FB, PCLN, NFLX) and biotechnology (e.g., ALXN, REGN, CELG, GILD) sectors have already begun to crack with steep corrections.Present level is associated with projected annual total returns on the S&P 500 of just over 1.8% annually.” John Hussman: “ since the 1940’s, the ratio of equity market value to GDP has demonstrated a 90% correlation with subsequent 10-year total returns on the S&P 500. Since 1970, only three times that market cap has equaled GDP:.US GDP is $16.8 trillion and total market cap of U.S.The percentage of total market cap relative to the US GDP is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”.Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted 10-year P/E ratio is currently 28.4 vs.Right now, stock market is 75% overvalued, right near the overvaluation peak prior to previous bear markets.Stock market is overvalued whenever Q ratio is above its long-term average.Andrew Smithers (U.K.) maintains Q ratio:.Similar to book value, but better because market values, not accounting values.Q ratio: market price of stock divided by asset replacement cost.Jim Fink Chief Investment Strategist, Jim Fink’s Options for Income
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Jim Fink The Wealth Summit May 2014 The Options Miracle System: How to Generate 30% Annualized Returns in a Stagnant Market With Limited Risk
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